Of 4% And 10%

Of 4% And 10%


Posted by admin
Friday, 10 April 2009 20:15

Bukit Gantang is basically a mixed constituency in which Chinese, Malay and Indian voters make up 27%, 63.5% and 9% of the electorate respectively, which is pretty close to the national racial structure. In view of this, the voting trends reflected in the Bukit Gantang by-election can definitely be used as a benchmark.

By LIM MUN FAH/Translated by DOMINIC LOH/Sin Chew Daily

If the figures quoted from their analysis have been accurate, the 4% fall and 10% surge will invariably be taken very seriously by all the ruling and opposition parties in this country.

The figures are taken seriously for the simple reason that the Bukit Gantang by-election is no ordinary by-election.

Putting aside the effects of BN's takeover of Perak administration and the swearing-in of the new prime minister, the racial make-up in Bukit Gantang alone has protruded its highly representative significance.

Bukit Gantang is basically a mixed constituency in which Chinese, Malay and Indian voters make up 27%, 63.5% and 9% of the electorate respectively, which is pretty close to the national racial structure.

In view of this, the voting trends reflected in the Bukit Gantang by-election can definitely be used as a benchmark.

Pakatan Rakyat has retained Bukit Gantang, and in the midst of celebration, the opposition pact must not overlook the fact that it has lost 4% of Malay and Indian votes.

This 4% may look immaterial, but given the fact that Malay and Indian voters make up over 70% of the electorate, this 4% could therefore have very critical effects.

If this 4% could be extended across the entire nation, and going up, then the pendulum may swing to the other side in the next general elections, allowing BN, in particular UMNO, to become the eventual victor.

But on the other hand, the sharp increase of 10% Chinese votes could very likely mean a dead end for BN, in particular Chinese-based component parties within the ruling coalition.

Of course, the prerequisite will be for Pakatan to hold fast to its Malay and Indian support, and not to allow the ballots from these two major communities to continue flowing back to BN.

10% is a shocking number. If what happened in Bukit Gantang could be extend beyond the constituency, it is not hard to imagine that MCA and Gerakan Rakyat will suffer even more crushing defeats in the coming general elections than what they experienced in March 2008.

If--I say if--MCA, Gerakan and MIC all tumble in the coming elections, it will be hard for us to imagine how BN--the political alliance that has dominated the country's politics for half a century--will be headed to.

4%, may mean Pakatan could only stare at the federal administration and yet unable to touch it.
10%, could mean the total collapse of the BN government.As a matter of fact, the future political developments in this country are always that delicate and unfathomable!